JimLundy

Tech Titan SAP buys SuccessFactors for $3.4 Billion

2011-12-03T11:19:00.001-08:00

Announced on a Saturday, this deal signifies that the Tech Titans may be loosening their purse strings to make acquisitions that help them with long term growth (see a related Aragon Research First Cut on SuccessFactors). For SAP, this signifies that a growth via acquisition strategy may be a long term play for them. Note that for others, such as the IBM Software Group, this strategy has worked successfully for years.

Aragon Research will be doing a full First Cut with analysis of this announcement, which was announced today, December 3rd, 2011. It is clear now that there is a trend that has Talent and HCM Suites appear to be coming together (see Aragon Research First Cuts: Talent and HCM Part I and Part II).

One thing that we will be looking at long term is how well does Enterprise Learning fit inside a Talent Suite. In Enterprise Content Management (ECM) for example, Web Content Management never really got absorbed as part of that Suite (note, Aragon Research covers Learning as part of its Knowledge topic).

In the short term, this will put some pressure on remaining providers of Talent Management Software (Cornerstone OnDemand, Saba Software, Silkroad, Sumtotal Systems, Taleo, Ultimate Software, Workday) on what they do:

1. Remain standalone;
2. Combine forces with another Talent or HCM provider;
3. Get bought by a bigger tech titan (ADP, IBM Oracle, SAP).

Regardless, this may signify that with the better unemployment numbers that just got issued in the US, that it is a good time for large enterprises to loosen their purse strings and make some acquisitions.

Stay tuned for our Aragon Research First Cut early next week.

Big Brother is Monitoring your Cell Phone

2011-11-29T20:37:00.001-08:00

Depending on your device, your cellular carrier (or others) may be monitoring all of your activity on your cell phone. In a story that was broken by Trevor Eckhart and reported by Wired and others, it appears that a Mountain View, California based firm, Carrier IQ has an app that is installed on millions of phones. It tracks everything, the numbers you dial and the text messages you get. Watch the video below and see for yourself.

It appears that Carrier IQ's tool is used by Carriers to test their network etc. The big problem is that it is an app that cannot be turned off or opted out of by users. This is Big Brother at its worst. We don't know who else has access to this data.

Wireless Carriers like Verizon are distancing themselves from this and there has been no mention yet from phone manufacturers. This story is going to get bigger. Stay tuned....

A New Cisco

2011-11-18T08:58:00.001-08:00

I've covered Cisco for years and this week attended their Collaboration Analyst and Partner Summit in Miami. While Aragon Research will be publishing a First Cut with our Analysis of their new product announcements, this blog post is about the changes I see occurring at Cisco.

Cisco really only started to make the true shift to Collaboration Software after it bought WebEx and it took a while to get the integration done. Cisco pioneered HD Video with its Telepresence offering and now it is poised to take that to the masses. Cisco has also innovated too. It's Enterprise Social Networking offering, Cisco Quad, was developed internally and is now deployed globally at Cisco.

CEO John Chambers has been the lead evangelist for Collaboration at Cisco, but that is changing. This week, Cisco SVP Barry O'Sullivan's General Managers were focused and on-message. The messages were integrated and so were the products.

Sometimes it takes a crisis to motivate a workforce and today I see a very motivated Cisco team that is ready to deliver their Collaboration vision to their customers. Since there were customers at the event this week, it was nice to see them start to tell the execution story.

What I see emerging is a new Cisco, leaner and more focused. In fact, I spent time with one of Cisco's Account Managers, Matt Coleman, who brought one of Cisco's flagship customers to the event. Matt has the passion for Cisco Collaboration and it is clear that his customer does too.

Finally, what should have been the opening video at Cisco's event was shown at the end. It takes a lot of guts to show Executives doing a Rap Video (see below). You need to watch it several times, but the messages are as compelling as the video is entertaining.

What I see is an inkling of a new Cisco that is beginning to emerge. It isn't all about hardware anymore.

Social is the new KM

2011-11-04T02:41:00.000-07:00

People are getting Social Media, Social Networking, Learning and Knowledge Management (KM) mixed up thanks to a few misleading blog posts by two of my former colleagues at Gartner. Or are they? If you read the responses at HBR, you will see that people are calling them on it. To be fair, Jeff Mann does get it and his blog is also counter what was being said (see his blog).

First, on taxonomy, here is how I explain social terminology to clients.

Social Media is generally viewed as the public consumer grade sites, microblogs, forums etc. where discussions or chats take place (e.g. Twitter, Facebook, Linked-in, Youtube, Second Life). Using Social Media to market your products and support your customers is a good use of these mediums.

Using Social Media to talk about your work is a bad idea, mainly because so many people are listening, including bad people that want to steal the intellectual property of the firm you work for. In fact, one of the research notes my firm recently published is titled, "Facebook is not a friend of your Enterprise".

Social Networks, particularly Enterprise Social Networks are private communities, which when implemented properly with identity and access control, are safe places for people to share information, connect with people and accelerate the pace of knowledge dissemination at a company. Many enterprises are still formulating their social networking plans. They have deployed customer communities to build brand loyalty but often the internal social network is still a few steps behind.

On Knowledge Management, when Social Networking (an internal or external community) is done right, with certified profiles of people (what they are trained or certified on), and with the ability to collaborate with others informally, lots of great things start to happen. First, people in remote geographies connect with others, they solve problems and influence each other by the content and comments they share. Often there is an acceleration factor that kicks in, because the pace of interaction is faster and wider.

From a learning perspective, tying formal learning to informal activities, related content and discussions, is now referred to as Social Learning. It is real and it does work. There usually is an ecosystem manager that facilitates the correlation of formal training with some of the informal content, but at the end of the day, the Social Network, as it gets used more and more, becomes the Knowledge Network. People can search it and find what they need.

Since I've actually overseen the development of Social Networking platforms and also deployed Social Networks, I recently conducted a short poll of some Sales Execs who had been using one of the Communities for over a year. My simple question to them was this: "what do you use to find the information you need to do your job now?" Their answer was "we just search the network (community) and we find what we need".

So, in reality, as an Enterprise Social Network gets used more, it will evolve into a Knowledge Network. People find what they need to do their jobs or they can ask someone in the community who can point them in the right direction. It is self-curated and self-sustaining, with a little help from the community manager and IT.

Hopefully, this has helped to clarify things. Social Networking and Social Learning are the new KM. We are covering Knowledge as one of our key topics in our Workplace Service at Aragon Research.

(Note: Jim Lundy is the Founder and CEO of Aragon Research. He founded and led the Social Software and Collaboration team at Gartner and oversaw the Corporate Learning coverage for ten years).

The War for PeopleSoft is over: Someone forgot to tell Workday

2011-10-26T21:44:00.000-07:00

In the year before PeopleSoft was bought by Oracle in a hostile takeover in 2005, there was a huge amount of drama in the marketplace (about whether the deal would go through due to anti-trust laws) and even Gartner was in the mix.

Oracle did succeed in buying PeopleSoft and most of the Senior Executives at PeopleSoft ended up leaving the company. Today, PeopleSoft is a successful part of Oracle and at Oracle OpenWorld last month, CEO Larry Ellison did a nice job of telling the Fusion story (the integration of a number of legacy products into a common platform). Oracle Fusion looks good and because of that and Oracle execution in general, Customers feel a lot better about Oracle than they did back in the day. The battle for PeopleSoft is over, Oracle won.

However, when you hear from an upstart called Workday, which features former PeopleSoft executives Dave Duffield and Aneel Bhusri, it sounds like the battle is not over. Workday is doing some great marketing (particularly with press and analyst influence), but as always with marketing and spin, you have to separate the facts from the fiction.

Today, Workday is still a pre-IPO start-up. Oracle is a Titan. Besides PeopleSoft, over the last few years Oracle has gobbled up Siebel Systems and most recently Sun Microsystems (this week they announced a $1.5 Billion deal to buy RightNow).

It used to be easy to bash Oracle, but times have changed and Oracle is bringing its A game. They make a compelling argument to the Enterprise CFO to consolidate and go with an all Oracle Suite. On top of that, Oracle also is launching their own Public Cloud.

Ripping out core HR is easier said than done, particularly when Oracle now has Oracle Social Network, a full Social platform that integrates with its HR Suite. So, let the war of words continue and we'll see how both providers fare in the land of execution.

Gartner, Forrester and now Aragon Research

2011-10-17T12:47:00.000-07:00

Since this is the week of Gartner Symposium, an annual ritual I attended for 12 straight years, I thought it would be good to put things in perspective.

Many colleagues I worked with (who ended up being real friends), joined Gartner when it had revenues in the $30M to $60M range. I joined when revenues were around $300M and left just after they hit the $ 1 Billion mark.

During my time at Gartner, we grew tired of the ex-Gartner-ites at Meta Group (nearly all were from Gartner), so Gartner CEO Gene Hall bought them. Then the Meta and Gartner internal turf wars started and things got interesting.

Forrester is the one large analyst firm left that still has relevance, particularly outside of IT. They have their strengths and weaknesses just like Gartner. While I was at Saba, I was a customer of both firms. More on that later. Will Gartner buy Forrester? Only time will tell.

One resounding theme I've heard from end users and vendors alike is that there isn't that much choice anymore when dealing with analyst firms. Offering choice and going back to real, hard hitting research and analysis is why we founded Aragon Research. There are lots of good bloggers out there, but there are not many analyst firms publishing research notes with real analysis and advice every month.

We offer a choice to enterprises and to technology providers and we have the track record that can help ensure you make the right technology related decisions to grow your business. Check out our website or our launch video and have fun at Gartner Symposium!

PS Make sure you wear comfortable shoes while in Orlando!

Collaboration and Content in the Cloud

2011-10-14T12:25:00.000-07:00

First came ECM, then came Microsoft SharePoint, then Google took content to the Cloud. Now everyone wants to jump on the bandwagon, as sharing content gets even easier in the cloud. Lots of start-ups and existing providers are jumping in (Box, Dropbox, Citrix, IBM, Google, Microsoft, Mindjet) and many others. It is all about making access to content fast, easy and mobile.

At Gartner, I helped coin the term Basic Content Services (BCS) as a way to describe what, at the time were emerging capabilities in products like SharePoint, which was not full Enterprise Content Management (ECM). Microsoft didn't like the term BCS and started to proclaim themselves as full ECM.

Jump ahead to 2011 and files are larger, people (like sales execs) are using tablets for work, and email systems block the transport of large files. Some are calling this new capability Cloud Content Management and for vendors it is a hot market. There is a large amount of investment, mainly at Box, which is gaining significant attention in this space. As a result, there is also new M&A activity occurring (e.g. Citrix announced it is buying ShareFile). Expect to see a lot more in the coming months.

In 2011, it is about more than just putting content in the Cloud. People want to be able to collaborate too, and for those that remember, collaboration has always been part of the content management story. People need access to the content, but often they need to collaborate with others on it. Google established the collaborative content approach with Google Docs and now others are working hard to capitalize on that trend.

As a recent example of collaborative content, Mindjet now offers their mind mapping tool as a Cloud service, Mindjet Connect. You can create information maps, edit and collaborate on them, as well as manage content with this new cloud service. Additionally, Cisco recently acquired Versly, which allows users to collaborate within a Microsoft Office document.

Aragon Research is publishing a syndicated research note this month that reviews this shift towards Collaborative Content in much deeper detail. There are lots of choices that will emerge and it is clear that business leaders are not waiting for the old way of doing things with ECM.

A Tale of Two Tech Titans, IBM and Kodak

2011-10-12T19:51:00.000-07:00

The tale of two 100 year old tech firms is really about thriving vs surviving. IBM and Kodak have both been around for over 100 years. In fact, earlier this year, IBM celebrated its 100th year. Kodak has been around longer, going back into the 1880s, when George Eastman developed film and the first camera.

Kodak and IBM are part of American history. When I was a kid, my mom loved her Kodak Camera. Later on I got a Kodak Instamatic and thought it was cool. IBM was there too, with the famous punch card machines that fed data into mainframes, typewriters, and the IBM PC. Today, you can see some of that history when you turn on an episode of Mad Men and watch one of the actors typing on an IBM Selectric or using a Kodak Carosel projector.

Jump ahead to 2011 and it is a very different tale for the two firms. Today, IBM is thriving, its market cap and stock price are up, but that is partly because over the years, IBM has made some very tough decisions that it often took heat for. IBM exited businesses, such as typewriters and PCs as they became commoditized (they also exited the printer business).

Kodak is not in the same place that IBM is, but it is still around (most firms from the 1800s are not). Today Kodak is struggling to survive, partly because of the shift from analog to digital photography. People are not buying film and they aren't printing photos as much as they used to. Kodak does make one of the best inkjet printers I've used and by far one of the best scanners, but it is a crowded market.

Rochester, New York is the home of Kodak. Kodak employment in Rochester has shrunk from a high of over 60,000 in 1982 to now under 7,400. When I lived there, many neighbors worked at Kodak, but many found their careers cut short. Some were 4th generation employees.

IBM has gone through tough times too, and there was a time when it had to do some serious downsizing. IBM weathered that storm and today it is back on top, as one of the strongest Tech brands in the world.

The lesson learned here is that business survival is tough. In a digital world that we live in today in 2011, it is even tougher because new competitors can emerge out of nowhere.

There is still hope for Kodak, but these are tough times in Imaging and Printing. Just ask any camera manufacturer what they are thinking, now that Smartphones (e.g. iPhone 4S) have world class camera lenses in them.

Your Life, For Sale on Facebook

2011-09-22T18:58:00.000-07:00

If 2011 was the year of the Like button for Facebook, 2012 could be called the return of the app. Today at their annual Developer Conference (D8) in San Francisco, Facebook unveiled new capabilities that increasingly are focused on allowing Facebook to monetize the nearly 800 million users that visit their site each month.

Facebook unveiled a new profile feature called Timeline that allows the history of your posts and activities to be displayed in chronological order (by year). More importantly, they added verbs (watch, read, listen, hike) to actions so that users can be listening to music, and that action (and the song you are listening to) is automatically shared with others via the music application (e.g. Spotify).

While digital natives will clearly enjoy this new way to show off their lives via Timeline, it also, at the same time, offers up a level of privacy infiltration that some may find undesirable. Friends and future employers can now get to know you in ways that they didn't before. Of course, users now have control over what they allow to be seen on their timeline, but over time, we expect that users, especially younger ones, will become less sensitive to what is there.

On the applications (apps) that so badly want to access your Timeline (and sell something), once an app has access to your profile, it doesn't have to ask permission ever again. It is clear that what is at work by Facebook is the continued expansion of its ability to grow revenues, which are estimated to be around $4.2 Billion for this year.

A friend that I worked with at Saba once said to me that her goal was to have zero information about her available on the internet. She is not a Facebook user. For those that are, with the coming launch of Facebook Timeline, your life, at least what is visible, is basically for sale.

Author's Note: We'll be covering Facebook (and the implications for Enterprises) in more detail in our premium research that is at AragonResearch.com

Windows 8 will Compete against the iPhone 6, iOS 6, and the iPad 4

2011-09-12T23:51:00.000-07:00

Tuesday, September 13th is the big unveiling of Windows 8 and with ARM support, it is widely expected that Microsoft will support a variety of hardware platforms, including Slates - their term for Tablets.

A new user interface is fine and good, but there are other things at work in the Mobile Ecosystem world in 2011. Within a few weeks after the announcement by Microsoft, Apple is due to ship both the iPhone 5 and iOS 5, which in itself will feature a host of new capabilities, including over-the-air updates and iCloud support. Additionally, Google will be shipping a brand new version of its Android OS this fall - code name is Ice Cream.

Windows 8 is taking shape in a world in which mobile product life refresh rates occur at least every 12 months, and consumers and enterprises have gotten used to this new, faster cadence (note, Windows 7 shipped in October, 2009).

In the second half of 2012, the world that Windows 8 will launch into will include a different set of products than we are about to have this fall. In less than 12 months, we expect to see launches of the iPhone 6, iOS 6, a new version of Android OS (rumored to be called Jelly Bean), new Android Phones, Android Tablets and a strong possibility of the release of the Apple iPad 4.

Will Microsoft surprise us with a quicker release date? History would indicate that answer as most likely no. How should enterprises deal with all of this? Tune into the Aragon Research Webinar on September 28th and we'll cover all this in detail.

We'll also be publishing our formal First Cut on the Microsoft Windows 8 announcement on AragonResearch.com

Aragon Research - The Webinar on Tablet Computing and Mobile Ecosystems

2011-09-11T10:27:00.000-07:00

Greetings. I'm pleased to announce that Aragon Research is hosting its very first Webinar on Wednesday, September 28th from 1-2 EDT (10-11 pacific). We're going to be discussing a hot topic: Tablet Computing and Mobile Ecosystems. Our take is that there is more to mobile than just the devices. We're talking about a concept called Mobile Ecosystems, what they are and why they matter to you and your enterprise.

Here is the Webinar Agenda for this event that you don't want to miss:

Key Trends in Mobile
Mobile Ecosystems - what you need to know
Emerging Use Cases for Tablet Computing

The timing couldn't be better either. With iOS 5 nearly complete (and the accompanying roll out of the iPhone 5) and with Microsoft gearing up for its Windows 8 support for Tablets, there are big things at stake.

We also have a special offer for those that join our webinar. Each attendee will receive one of our hard hitting Research Notes. These research notes provide you with the kind of information and detailed analysis that helps you stay informed and make better technology and business decisions. Of course Aragon Research clients get access to our complete set of research. Go to AragonResearch.com for our topics and research agenda.

Sign-up for our inaugural webinar here and we look forward to your participation in a great event.

Does Touchpad Success equal second thoughts at HP?

2011-08-30T23:48:00.000-07:00

There must be a raging debate at HP over its Touchpad, a product that was cancelled on August 18th (see Aragon Research First Cut Note).

Now various news outlets are quoting HP's Todd Bradley that it might have been premature to cancel the product. So, while HP is discovering that consumers do react positively to low prices, the world will wait to see what HP does next. The bigger question is around the future of its PC Unit.

Stay tuned.

Introducing Aragon Research - The Video

2011-08-29T00:13:00.000-07:00

We're heading into week three of the launch of Aragon Research and it wouldn't be right if we didn't leverage all possible channels to get the word out. I have spoken with a great number of people in the short time we've been in existence. The reaction and receptivity to Aragon Research has been great.

Attention spans are short, especially this week, with both VMWorld and Dreamforce going on. So in that spirit, the intro video, Introducing Aragon Research is short and to the point.

I'll be up at Dreamforce this week and hope to catch up with many of you. We'll also be announcing some upcoming webinars, so stay tuned!

The Patent Wars are not new, the Battle for Mobile is

2011-08-17T07:45:00.000-07:00

The battles we are now witnessing among tech giants for patents are not new. What is new is the realization that mobile is the new battle ground and the stakes are high. In patent wars, it is a chess game and one of the objectives can be to stop the other vendor from succeeding. Often this can be mitigated by a cross-licensing arrangement that users rarely hear about.

In mobile, Microsoft has been racing to catch-up and it is working hard to make sure it has plenty of armor (patents). Apple has been surging and it has been filing patents in droves for years. They learned the hard way (from all the Microsoft battles in the early years) that patents help sustain and protect the business. Apple has also been working very hard on doing the right patent acquisitions (note that Apple won the bid for the Nortel patents because it partnered with EMC, Ericsson, Microsoft, RIM, and Sony).

Much of the talk has been around Google, its failed bid for the Nortel patents and this week, its hefty purchase of Motorola Mobility. Given that it failed on the Nortel bid, it didn't have much choice to buy Motorola and gain access to its 17,000 issued patents. What was ominous for Google was that Microsoft was one of the other bidders. That said, while Google is getting abused in the press about the Motorola price tag, it is getting 17,000 patents (Microsoft has over 18,000).

IBM has one of the biggest patent portfolios in High Tech, it is very good at creating patents and it has made a business out of licensing them. IBM plays the game very well and it is professional about it. It can get a little nasty with some of the others. Google could certainly learn from IBM and it looks like it has, since they just cut a deal with IBM to license 1,000 of its patents.

An example of patent licensing that many don't know about occurred in the copier market. Years ago, Canon had invented a new way of applying toner to paper and later a modular system for packaging toner cartridges. It brought Xerox to the table and a cross licensing deal was cut way back in 1978. However, while Xerox got access to the Canon patent portfolio, Canon gained access to Xerox's high speed paper handling patents and 20 years later, Canon eventually crept up into the departmental copier space where Xerox made a large majority of its profits. There are always trade-offs to patent licensing deals.

In mobile, the battle it isn't just about patents on the core technologies, it is about the entire mobile ecosystem. More about that in some of our upcoming research. If you haven't checked out the newest research firm, Aragon Research, please stop by our site.

Founding Aragon Research

2011-08-12T21:15:00.000-07:00

Today, I wrapped up a great 19 months at Saba Software. I worked with some incredible people and we launched some award winning products that lots of customers are taking advantage of. I'm proud of what I did at Saba....now it is time for my next move.

Since I left Gartner, many of you have told me that there is a lack of choice in technology research today. Next week, my co-founder, Mike Anderson, and I are going to be unveiling the next generation of Technology Research firms, Aragon Research Inc.

Aragon Research is going to offer you that choice by providing high quality technology research and trusted advisory services. Our initial focus is going to be on everything involved with work - people, collaboration, mobile, social, content, portal and knowledge. We have a powerful agenda and can't wait to share our story with you.

In fact, tune in on Monday, 8/15, and visit our new website, AragonResearch.com. In the meantime, check out our fan page on Facebook and and give us a Like!

Stay tuned for more and feel free to reach out to me at JLundy@Aragonresearch.com

Jim Lundy
Founder and CEO
Aragon Research Inc.

Tech Recap Week Ending 5/13 - a new Clash

2011-05-15T10:04:00.000-07:00

It was a busy week in Tech and May is usually that way, spanning back all the way to May of 1990, when Microsoft introduced Windows 3.0 to the world. Things changed.

This week Microsoft was at it again and they announced that they were buying Skype, which at 8.5 Billion is a steep price to pay to get your Mojo back. See my take on the deal here.

Of course Google was at it too and the shot that hasn't yet been heard around the world is their new Chromebook. A nifty way to shift people from buying to renting a PC (prices are roughly US $20-28 per device/month) and more importantly some clever security and a new way of isolating of apps from the OS to stop intrusion attacks. Google still needs to show that it is committed to this approach with its partners, but this week it certainly showed it is dedicated to Chrome. The progress Google showed with Chrome in just twelve months is impressive and it also shows that Google's development teams are maturing.

The last item probably would have never showed up at all had it not been for a smart reporter that wasn't about to be duped and it has to do with the whisper campaign Facebook tried to launch against Google. While this has been widely reported and widely tweeted about, what is interesting is that this represents an epic shift of the clash of the titans.

I used to discuss Microsoft vs IBM as the big titan clashes. Now that the battle is in the cloud, it is Google facing off against Facebook. This time it is really all about Ad revenue. Google has it and now Facebook does too. I'll certainly be talking about Facebook in the future, but suffice to say, Facebook is pretty vulnerable to the same type of PR attack it launched on Google. Even more worrisome, Facebook is also an effective tool to use as part of a cyber-attack on an enterprise (see As Facebook Grows, so does Cyber Warfare).

So a busy week in tech and it doesn't show any sign of slowing down.

Will Microsoft Get its Mojo Back with $8.5B Skype Purchase?

2011-05-09T20:04:00.000-07:00

Microsoft needs a shot of Mojo and Skype could be part of the answer. In an Internet era where Facebook, Android, iOS, iPhone, iPad and Skype are uttered hundreds of thousands of times a day on Twitter and the blogosphere, getting a brand called Skype certainly should help Microsoft's brand recognition in the consumer space.

Of course, that assumes this deal goes down as reported in the online edition of the Wall Street Journal. Assuming it does, Microsoft gets a hot consumer brand that it should be able to leverage its Bing Search engine against (advertising revenue).

For enterprises, the question could quickly become: Should I (pay for) Lync or should I Skype. Clearly the spin will say you can do both, but for many Skype is an attractive easy to use alternative to a Microsoft Lync, whether it be Lync on-premise or Lync Online.

Of course, the problem with acquisitions these days at Microsoft is that resistance is futile. The big divisions at Microsoft don't take kindly to threats to their dominance, so the question is, what happens to Skype after the deal goes down? Does Skype remain somewhat independent or will they be absorbed.

Either way, this deal will give some pricing leverage to enterprises on the Unified Communications and Collaboration (UCC) front. Skype is good enough on many fronts so that Lync doesn't have to be licensed for all users in the enterprise and that could mean a big savings for both the CIO and Business Unit GMs. Just as in Content Management, it is time for enterprises to start segmenting users and their UCC needs vs a one size fits all approach.

So overall, this deal will be viewed as more of a Microsoft tries to get their (Internet) Mojo back than anything else. Microsoft needed to do something in UCC and this deal is far cheaper what they were looking at paying for purchasing Yahoo as recently as 2008. Whether Microsoft really leverages this Sykpe acquisition with the rest of its products remains to be seen.

The Tablet as your new all-in-one

2011-03-19T15:31:00.000-07:00

Tablet devices like the Apple iPad, Samsung Galaxy Tab and Motorola XOOM are changing our world in ways that people are now just beginning to realize. The rise of the tablet and the apps that run on them is causing a shift to occur that will affect the things people buy and how they access content. Products that had unique hardware for enabling common tasks or conveying information are about to be replaced.

Applications (called Apps), running on a tablet computer, are going to become the defacto way to access content (news, tv, movies) and to control devices (TVs, PCs, game consoles and more). The Cable service that used to give you a remote control, will now give way to an app that runs on a tablet. Xfinity, Time Warner Cable and others are leading the charge here with their respective cable tv apps. With these apps, and others from Slingbox, and Netflix, the remote is built-in. The Tablet just became your new all-in-one and it will go much further than just controlling your TV.

Regarding content (news, tv, games and movies), the publishing industry is still figuring out the eBook/eMagazine business model and distribution strategy (see prior Ebooks post). Clearly, tablets will play a huge role in how we consume news. News Corp is jumping at the opportunity with The Daily, a paid application that gives you daily news for $39.99 for a two year subscription.

It doesn't stop there. Last week, I used my iPhone to advance a PowerPoint presentation on my PC, more as a way to demonstrate how change is occurring than anything else. Car companies like Hyundai Motors are now offering the owners manual for their Hyundai Equus car in a digital format - they provide an iPad as the actual owners manual.

Look for much more than just owners manuals, magazines, movies and remote controls going forward. Tablet apps are going to explode and the demise of consumer electronics dedicated hardware has begun. Look for more and more games to be tailored for tablets. How much money will game controller firms throw at hardware in the future?

So in a way, the tablet and their affiliated Apps becomes the new All-in-One. Going forward, it will be less about the tablet itself, and more about the Apps that run on the tablet that becomes the consumer selection criteria. The race for tablet App development has already started, but it is about to explode.

An Operating System that changed the World

2011-02-10T21:32:00.000-08:00

The seeds were planted years ago, soon after the Apple iPod came out. However, Apple never disclosed its multi-device OS strategy until their momentum in the market was well established. Today, Apple's Operating Systems are powering phones, tablets and Macs. That has created a fair degree of market envy, but Apple now has a few generations of users that know their products work and pretty much keep working.

The high tech industry, which from 2007 until early 2009 failed to take Apple seriously, is now reeling from the continuous product hits coming out of Apple. In fact, one could argue that the PC industry has been permanently changed. Netbooks have given way to Tablets and Smart Phones without apps are just not highly desired, since data, not calls, are powering Carrier growth. Mobility, Applications and ease of use are the watch words.

Google recognized the trend early, put together a great team and now Android has become the OS of choice for most handset and tablet manufacturers. Other providers failed to act and now are scrambling to catch up.

The OS is not the only part of this success story, Apple made it easy for developers to monetize their work and that unleashed a wave of application innovation like we haven't seen in decades. The others that are in the game, with the minor exception of Google, don't have the same application portability across phones and tablets.

I was in the battles of the Desktop Operating Systems in the early days of a GUI based OS (I was at Xerox in Palo Alto) and in those days the desktop OS was looked at in one dimension (Workstations/PCs). What is fascinating to me is how many large vendors have continued to look at the OS in a single dimension. Apple and Google get As, they did their homework, monetized their designs and are now reaping the rewards.

The question though is what lessons the other vendors (Microsoft, Dell, HP, Nokia, RIM, Sony) will learn from this. For many, a multi-dimensional OS was never viewed as strategic. For a few, it is fast becoming a matter of survival. Mergers and acquisitions will be the things to watch this year.

A sidebar about IBM. IBM certainly knows about Operating Systems, but they of stepped back from the desktop OS fray when they exited the PC business. Given all that is going on, this may be a time that they evaluate their strategy, since they have the core competence to scale an OS up and down.

The result of all this is that that it will no longer be a one OS fits all approach. Users will pick the apps they want, run them on the devices they want and access secure corporate portals that serve up the right content, data and analytics.

Global Travel, Blackberrys and the iPhone

2011-01-08T08:37:00.000-08:00

So the iPhone is going to launch on Verizon's network. Cool, many people will be happy. That said, for many business executives who travel, the issue is having a phone and wireless carrier that they can use on a worldwide basis.

For many years, Blackberry RIM devices were THE standard and today for many, they still are. It is a great device for email and phone calls. I used mine all over the place, but about a year ago, I switched to the iPhone. On a recent trip around the world, the only device I took was the iPhone. It worked - flawlessly.

I used it for calls, for email, SMS texting and Web Conferencing. One of my products - Saba Centra Web Conferencing runs on the iPhone. I had to join a meeting right after landing in Amsterdam, and joined it via iPhone. I was in the meeting, watching the slides and talking via VoIP. Try that with other products.

So, anyway, my transition from Blackberry to iPhone has been a positive one. I'm much better at touch typing than I used to be. I'll also note that in Silicon Valley, I have very few dropped calls, but I'm not in San Francisco.

Is Harassment via Twitter the Same as Email?

2011-01-07T21:03:00.000-08:00

People communicate in different ways and for many, communicating via email has had its set of issues. Over the years, people started to use email as a way to harass others. It got so bad that many states passed laws that made it a misdemeanor to send e-mail "with the intent to harass". Normally, the line gets crossed when multiple emails (or tweets) are involved that are intentionally abusive.

Sometimes, a twitter chat can turn unexpectedly ugly. If you get harassed on Twitter and the person persists in their abusive behavior, the best thing to do is not to respond. If it is an associate you work with, you can report it to your HR department. If it is someone you don't work with, you can block the user and report them to Twitter via this link. If it involves real threats, call your local police department.

It is clear that the day is coming when states will update their legislation to make harassment via Twitter the same as email.

2010 in Review: As Facebook Grows, so does Cyber Warfare

2011-01-03T08:41:00.000-08:00

If the growth of Facebook and the emergence of the Apple iPad were the most widely reported tech stories in 2010, the emergence of Cyber Warfare that targets governments and enterprises is the most under reported one, with far greater consequences. In fact 2010, could be viewed as the year that Cyber Warfare emerged as a true weapon. Below I outline six steps to take to protect your enterprise.

It is now very clear that certain governments are using Cyber warfare to attack adversaries, including private/public companies. Some key things that occurred in 2010:

1. Facebook and other consumer social sites played a role in the Great Hack of Google and 34 other firms. However, it is worse than that. Thousands of firms may have been breached according to Kevin Mandia, CEO of security firm Mandiant.
2. Redirection of US Internet Traffic by China on April 8, 2010 and the attack of at least 5 other firms.
3. Confirmation by the US Federal Government that attacks against Google and other enterprises were ordered by Chinese Government officials (via CNBC).

A key conclusion from an earlier post: these new modes of attack, known as Advanced Persistent Threats, are far too sophisticated to stop with software and firewalls. The best known method to protect your corporate assets (source code and intellectual property) is to isolate key corporate systems from the normal corporate network. In other words, you need two networks.

What does all of this really mean? Well, for starters, it is a new era of electronic warfare and this time it is information that is the currency that is being fought over. There stakes are very high: the future of countries and the future economic well being of both the country and the companies that operate in those countries.

Why? Well, the military and technology firms are linked together in interesting ways, as this article (based on research by Rand Corp) demonstrates. Companies have become fronts for governments and military organizations. Some may say that this is not new, but the scale of what is going on now has not been seen in the past.

For enterprises, all of the investment in products that represent the future could be wasted if those secrets are stolen. Cisco learned this a few years back when some of its code was stolen by Huawei Technologies Inc. The lawyer who represented Cisco, G. Hopkins Guy, won an injunction against Huawei and was widely recognized for his ground breaking work that resulted in a worldwide injunction against Huawei.
What does this all mean to you and your enterprise? For starters consider doing this:
1. . Develop a comprehensive strategy to combat cyber warfare and make sure it includes a training program (cyber war gaming) for executives, not just IT staff.
2. Take the steps to isolate your corporate systems. No matter what you hear from major analyst firms or anyone else, physical separation of information on computers (e.g. a separate network) is the only sure way to stop intrusion right now. Look at models that the military has used (classified vs unclassified systems). This also has major implications for desktop/pc access.
3. Shield key data centers/systems from wireless access and wireless monitoring. For those with remote sites (e.g. retail branches), don't over look these sites as methods of access. If you have any doubts about this action, you need to read The Great Cyber Heist (courtesy of the NY Times).
4. Re-evaluate all browser and operating system security at an architectural level. Evaluate roadmaps from all providers and make the tough, but correct decisions on what platforms you will invest in going forward. Blindly following the incumbent provider may not be the answer that solves your issues.
5. Intrusion from the inside is also a growing issue. Compartmentalizing information so that no one person has access to everything is key, as is a practice of not keeping all source code in one location or on one physical server.
6. Block Facebook. As popular as it is, Facebook isn't secure and it isn't good for your corporate security. Run Facebook in conjunction with certain web browsers and you have the perfect system for intrusion. Many governments and enterprises block access to Facebook and now you know why. This won't be a popular decision, but it is the right one.

So, in 2011, expect to keep hearing more about Facebook and its growing valuation. 2011 may also be called the year of the Tablet (the rise of Android based Tablets). That is all well and good, but the number one issue your enterprise or government needs to prepare for is cyber warfare. 2011 is the time to get prepared for the attacks that are yet to come.....Happy New Year.

Advanced Persistent Threats - Part II. The China Angle

2010-11-18T23:24:00.000-08:00

My earlier post about Advanced Persistent Threats just got more interesting. Today, the Wall Street Journal confirmed that China Telecom redirected up to 15% of all of internet traffic on April 8th, 2010. The attack targeted US Government Servers, Dell, IBM, Yahoo and Microsoft.

This means that Google is not alone, since they were viciously attacked in December 2009 (see previous post). In fact, what is interesting is that so far, the only company to stand up to the Chinese has been Google. How will these companies react? Hard to tell since these kind of attacks are nearly impossible to stop, except that this attack was preventable.

So how did they do it? It was the result of changing the routing tables that are generated by network routers. As I have said in the past, the world is not a nice place and trusting all of the actors on the internet is no longer a smart business proposition. No enterprise and no government can really assume that they are not at risk from these types of attacks.

The net result of all of this is that a private, secure business network will emerge. Companies, such as the government owned China Telecom, if they keep perpetrating this kind of alleged behavior, will be blocked from conducting business outside of China.

The iPad Arrives at Target as Tablet Announcements Increase

2010-10-17T01:30:00.000-07:00

Three weeks ago the headline that caught my eye was the front page of the Target Sunday Flyer in the San Jose Mercury News: The iPad is available at Target. Yes, now Target, AT&T, Verizon and others are going to resell the iPad. Apple is expanding distribution just as the wanna be Tablets show up.

There are so many Android Tablets arriving it is hard to decide where to start. The Samsung Galaxy isn't bad, but I wonder if the Verizon will really push it. The 5 inch Dell Streak isn't bad but it looks more like a phone than a tablet.

The Blackberry Playbook Tablet looks interesting, but I don't see any ads from Blackberry pushing it yet. I also don't see the Playbook out yet.

That brings me to HP and Microsoft. The two made big noise earlier this year, but that was before HP bought Palm. Now there is an eery silence, from both companies, except for occasional promises from Microsoft.

So while all the new comers get ready for their launch, Apple is reportedly expanding iPad production capacity to 3 million units a month. It will be interesting to watch this play out.

iPhones and Family Plans - A Saturday spent at AT&T and Apple Stores

2010-08-26T22:30:00.000-07:00

After two years with two different cell phone plans, we made plans for a consolidation, and due to an existing iPhone in the family, and the new far less expensive data plan from AT&T, the decision was made to go with AT&T.

Our family members were given the choice on phones and to make a long story short, all picked the iPhone. It was a long Saturday and it started easily enough with a visit to the Apple Store in Los Gatos, CA. Tip: go to Apple Stores that are not in Malls. The Apple retail staff are more laid back.

The Apple salesman was very nice and we got two iPhones enabled and old data ported over in a little over an hour and a half. It was nice and relaxing at the Los Gatos store. I saw the CIO of Cisco there and she looked pretty interested in a bunch of iPad accessories. That was the start of the journey.

Apple can only add a phone to an existing plan or create a new plan. They are not authorized to set-up a family plan. Very strange, but it is reflective of the relationship between AT&T and Apple.

Next stop was the AT&T store. We waited in line for over an hour. After that, we got the new phones correctly updated and our other son's plan migrated to a family plan. My wife decided not to go with a Blackberry Torch and the AT&T store had no iPhones. So it was back to the Apple Store at a Mall across the street in San Jose.

We waited at the Apple store for 45 minutes before getting served. It was not relaxing like the Los Gatos store. They had an iPhone 3GS that I bought and it was turned on and the data was migrated from the old phone. Then it was back to the AT&T store to get it added to the family plan. The AT&T Salesman was very nice and claimed we were all set.

We finally got home well after dinner time. While it was a long day, it was no longer than when we signed up with Verizon two years ago. It would be nice if Apple had more ability to setup AT&T family plans.

It was all good until this week, when we started getting messages that we were over our unlimited texting plan. A quick phone call to AT&T solved that.

I will say this. Never underestimate what a teenager can do with thousands of apps from the iTunes app store. The hot tip for your teens is to teach them how to connect their iPhone to wireless networks (home and school). That way, they don't go over the limits on their data plan.

iPad Envy: How Apple Caught the PC Industry Off-Guard

2010-08-01T08:58:00.000-07:00

2010 will be remembered most in technology circles as one in which Apple caught the entire PC industry off guard. We're talking about the Apple iPad and the Tablet wars it has stoked. Was this a stroke of genius or just another example of design and usability as a core operating principle of a technology company.

First, the rumors in January about an Apple Tablet. Microsoft's Steve Ballmer tried very hard to circumvent that by announcing Tablets (referred to as Slates) at CES in early January. Jump ahead seven months later and there is no Slate to be seen.

After the iPad announcement, there was lots of criticism until shipments started. After that, People went wild and so did news agencies (racing to develop iPad Apps). I wrote about the five principles that make the iPad a winner before the match even started in my blog post titled: The Five Factors that Make the iPad a Winner. While some might refer to Apple's success as a 'rounding error', by June, 2010, Apple had already sold over three million iPads.

Figure 1

Figure 1 above shows the impact that the Apple iPad has had on technology providers. In fact, today there is not a PC provider or a carrier that isn't laser focused on this new category. Count the wanna-bes far and wide: Verizon, Google, Dell , Microsoft and even Blackberry. So far, few vendors are shipping any devices (the HP Slate is not shipping; the Dell Streak is shipping outside of US).

Will tablets go the way that smart phones are headed, which implies that Google's Android has a big chance at victory (due in part to mass marketing by hardware manufacturers and cellular carriers)?

Google still is learning about User Interface design and the usability that goes with it. Every engineer at Google learns how to optimize applications for Search, Google's cash cow. Google would also be wise to invest in more UX training. A plus for Google is that their time-to-market, the time it takes to release a new OS version, is impressive. That said, can you name the Droid device most people carry? Naming and branding needs work as well.

What about Microsoft? Well, a stealth project Tablet called the Courier was cancelled. Why? Well, it probably lost a battle with the Windows 7 team. Courier looked pretty cool. Check out this YouTube video of a Courier. It looked far more advanced than the iPad, but again, innovative ideas are killed off every day in the corporate world.

Rest assured, Microsoft will be in the market with Tablets and they will run ads on TV. The problem is that it is more than putting Windows 7 on a device. Microsoft needs more than a 'tuned' version of Windows 7. If it was just that, why didn't tablets take off years ago when Microsoft introduced Ink in its OS.

The reality is that right now, with the iPad, Apple has a multi-year lead on the rest of the Industry. The iPad doesn't require tinkering or tuning. It works and the UI is so intuitive, you see Grandparents using them on planes.

Building for design and usability with tight integration between the OS and the hardware platform is art and science combined. It seems so simple, but the reality is that thanks to Apple, users (IT jargon for people) now have a design and usability standard. The rest of the industry needs to pay close attention to these important lessons.

The Return of Ford Motor Company

2010-07-24T22:07:00.000-07:00

The news is starting to spread. With an outstanding earnings release, and a new stable of cars and trucks, Ford is back, even if they are far leaner than they ever were.

1932 Ford Model A

Many people in this country grew up with Ford vehicles and it had an impact on their life. I saw it first hand, since both of my parents drove fords and still do. In fact, I learned to drive in a 1972 Ford Station Wagon. What has never changed is the Ford logo: it is still the same.

The Ford F-150 has been the king of trucks since its inception. Many have tried to conquer it, but it is hard to compete with a truck this rugged. My neighbor in New York only used Ford trucks at his business because he indicated that nothing else could take the pounding.

It is in the car line-up that the changes have been coming at such a steady pace. The Mustang is just a joy to drive and it is a head turner. That said, Ford now offers a 40 MPG Fiesta that has been blogged and you-tubed for the last two years and is already popular with the iPhone crowd.

The biggest thing Ford has done is to simplify while it improved quality. Ford offers only six different car models, which is one of the reasons it is making money. These cars run well and are as good or better than their competition.

Ford is not slowing down either. Next week (last week of July 2010), Ford unveils the redesigned Ford Explorer.

Ford is back and it is great to see. Quality cars and trucks, at reasonable prices. They work and they run. Just like the original Model T that Henry Ford built.

Picking the Right Mac Laptop for College

2010-07-18T20:53:00.000-07:00

If your high school graduate is about to head off to college, it is important to properly equip them with a PC (oops I meant a Mac) that is easy to use and that will work reliably and not require any assistance. We made the shift for our kids back in 2006 and the long term road test indicates that occasionally running disk utility is the only maintenance needed on these machines.

The laptop of choice for a lot of students is shifting to the Apple MacBook and the reasons are now self-explanatory (they easy to use and just work, all the time). I'm going to share some brief thoughts on which MacBook to choose and the reasons why.

Platform - 13 inch vs 15 inch MacBook Pro
This is a personal preference, but a bigger screen often means more productivity. The only reason not to buy one from the University Store (UCLA offers both) is because you DO want to order online and get the 500 GB 7200 RPM hard disk. It is much faster than the standard drive (5400 RPM) and that also means more productivity for your student. Check out this link from MacRumors.com. Having had a glossy 13" MacBook for a while, I might now opt for the Anti-Glare Option.

Support
Don't forget Apple Care. Don't skip this option, as it provides three years of support and repair service for your Mac.

Office Suite
Microsoft Office 2008 is the office suite of choice. Note that a key feature in MS Word is the Note taking feature and it allows for audio recordings of the professor's lecture.

Online File, Content Access and Backup
Mobile Me from Apple is one option, so is Google Docs. Some friends are using Mobile Me more often and for a student, it also backs up contacts. Before you sign-up though, check out what the University is offering. Also, send along some food sized USB memory sticks for file sharing etc.

Accessories
An extra power cord can be a life saver, as sometimes a power cord can be left in the library and you need power for an all nighter... Some dorm rooms won't fit an extra display but that is your choice.

Transporting and Protecting your laptop
A number of providers, including Speck provide skins and backpacks/bags to protect and transport your Mac...Solar backpacks, while not for everyone, do work.

The printer to pick will be a separate post, as picking the right printer is easier said than done. So, have fun picking your Mac and start using it now, so you get used to it before heading to school.

CyberWar Reference Links

2010-07-08T15:57:00.000-07:00

There is a lot of information out there about the Google hack. It is worth keeping a list:

January Articles
Computer World
MobiTech.web.id

March Articles
Mcafee Blog

Cyber Warfare and the new Era of Advanced Persistent Threats

2010-07-07T22:51:00.000-07:00

Cyber Warfare is here and your PC is the tool that becomes a weapon. How it does so is up for debate, but facts that have come to light indicate that the PC you pick, the browser and reader you use and the apps you run are being harnessed to launch cyber warfare attacks on you, your company and your country.

I wrote about the hack of Google earlier this year and since then even more information has come to light. The fact that so much of Google's infrastructure was compromised is probably why Google was so angry.

The issue for the normal user and for any IT Pro is that Operating Systems, Flash Players, PDF viewers are all being exploited through zero day vulnerabilities. It isn't just one application that is being exploited. It is a combination and that suggests a much higher level of sophistication than we have known so far in the Internet generation.

The Cocktail combo used to get Google appears to have been PCs with IE 6 running on them. That browser, combined with Facebook Instant Messaging, could enable a fatal trojan to be loaded onto the target PC. After that, it was easy.

Google's reaction was to stop support for IE6. It is a true statement that Adobe has had as much heat for security flaws as Microsoft. Apple has also quietly been issuing security updates at the same frequency as Adobe and Microsoft.

Even more telling is how these attacks are now being labeled. George Kurtz of Mcafee writes. “These highly customized attacks known as ‘advanced persistent threats’ (APT) were primarily seen by governments and the mere mention of them strikes fear in any cyberwarrior. They are in fact the equivalent of the modern drone on the battle field. With pinpoint accuracy they deliver their deadly payload and once discovered — it is too late. All I can say is wow. The world has changed.”

Corporate Security is a big issue and it cannot be ignored. The wrong OS or Browser or player puts you at risk. Most of the Analysts I know are not taking a strong position on this. The risks are clear: gamble and you lose source code or even more.

It is clear that higher levels of defenses are needed. The first step is knowledge. Check out this link for some courses. Raise your browser security levels and look for best practices like the plug-in checker from Mozilla. Lastly, consider disconnecting certain corporate systems from the regular network (ie a standalone network). Don't wait. Put together a new plan now.

The Making of a Corporate Marketing Video called 'The Ask'

2010-07-06T09:19:00.000-07:00

It may be that it is a dying art, but in twelve years at Gartner, I rarely ever saw a good (let alone great) launch video for a new product. Jump ahead to 2010 and I'm back in vendor land facing the task of getting the word out on a new Collaboration product offering that is now announced (Saba Live and Saba Collaboration Suite).

The making of a corporate video is never easy and it is fraught with roadblocks and challenges. Overcoming them is about staying focused on the mission: producing a short, but compelling story that convinces all viewers to look a little closer at what you have to offer.

The making of The Ask is almost as interesting as the video itself. First, you need a world class script writer who is technical enough to be able to understand product features but then able to finesse them into the story without hitting the viewer over the head. My good friend Sheldon Renan wrote the script for The Ask and he is the same guy that produced the famous video called The Deadline when I was running marketing for MFPs (Digital Copier/Printers) at Xerox in Rochester NY.

You also need to have a great director David Rathod and a great producer Laura Marks, both pictured on the left. But to make it happen, you need a great team to pull off the story.
The Collaboration Business Unit at Saba moved mountains and we created a fictional company, Bladzco, that is featured in the video. One of the funny stories about the making of the video is that all the screen shots were actually filmed during the production (almost no post). That is a credit to the strength and maturity of the products.
That said, Saba has had a collaboration offering since 2005 and has offered Saba Centra Web Conferencing for over ten years. That is one reason why so many Global 500 firms and the public sector trust Saba for enterprise class web conferencing.

So, now the video is out and my friends at Gartner are calling it 'impressive'. So are our customers.

Fingernails and SmartPhones

2010-07-05T12:01:00.000-07:00

A small musing on one aspect related to Smartphone selection.

Many of my female professional associates have long fingernails that make it hard to use a touch screen smartphone. As a result, many of them are going the way of the Blackberry or Android devices because of the physical keyboard.

In fact, some of my friends carry two devices, one for heavy texting, the other for browsing. Maybe the iPad will change that behavior (eliminate the need for a second device).

What is your preference?

Smartphones, Tablets and the Rise and Fall of Technology Providers

2010-07-01T22:40:00.000-07:00

Time changes all things and 2010 is no exception. Everywhere I go, I see iPads. In fact, my team at Saba Software helped me produce an awesome launch video about Saba Live and it has iPads featured in it. No one has made a challenge so far to the iPad. Nothing, not a squeak.
What is interesting to watch is how the smartphone wars have changed the landscape. My friends at Gartner used to say that it wouldn't take much for Palm to be successful. Palm is gone. HP wants PalmOS...
Microsoft put out a new phone called the Kin and promptly killed it, only days after starting a TV advertising campaign. You can still see the website that shows the Kin, but you can also read the details about how it got killed here.
Google now claims that an Android phone is sold every two seconds and that Android is surpassing the iPhone. That may be, but Android doesn't have the cult appeal of the iPhone. That said, some techies are starting to shift. However, the new data plan for the iPhone will mean millions of teenagers will get iPhones, since many parents will go for the $15 dollar a month data plan.
Nokia, the world's largest producer of smart phones recently warned that earnings may fall.
The Apple iPad created a new category and is now a mainstream toy for all the tech enthusiasts that travel the world. Mainstream consumers are snapping them up too. Who will respond to the iPad? So far, no one has.
So, in the course of 36 months, the market for smartphones and tablets has changed. Vendors like Apple and Google are on the rise. Others are taking their lumps. As I have said before, user experience trumps everything.

Adobe vs Apple is really about Flash losing to H.264

2010-05-06T04:48:00.000-07:00

It is the talk of Silicon Valley. The Flash smack down by the usually reserved Steve Jobs. The return strikes from Adobe, which didn't really accomplish much, except make it look very obvious that the two companies are not talking.

It seems that Adobe's Kevin Lynch never really talked to Steve and it was naive to think that Apple would ever give up control of its user interface for the iPhone, iTouch or iPad. That was really one of the big issues. Flash could enable a common user interface across all mobile devices. Ah but that is when the chess match gets interesting.

It is also a fight about money. Adobe sells tools that allow the creation of Flash and it has a great business. Apple makes money too and you can argue with their tactics, but you can't argue with the success of the iPhone or the App Store. I don't see too many developers complaining about the App Store model, as many are now rich beyond their wildest dreams.

HTML 5 and H.264 are here. Argue as much as you want, but the numbers on H.264 are real. I was surprised by the uptake, but it is clear that it is already game, set, match for H.264.

The Five Factors that make the iPad a Winner

2010-04-03T08:19:00.000-07:00

Today is launch day for the Apple iPad, the tablet device that is destined to be a PC laptop killer. In previous posts, including ones on eBooks that go back to Gartner Research Notes I wrote in 2000, we described the aspects that an eBook Reader (tablet like device) would need and predicted the year it would appear (2007). Now it is 2010 and we essentially have the second generation device with the Apple iPad.

There are four factors that make the iPad a winner:
1. Platform. Form factor and a great display are the starting points. The hardware isn't perfect, but it has a familiarity to all previous Apple devices. It doesn't have everything, but third parties (see guide from Mashable) will help out here.
2. Operating System. Simplicity and a progressive disclosure based UI design are at the heart of it. For any Apple user, it is immediately intuitive. For any new user, it takes little time to get used to it, except for the touch typing.
3. Content. This is where things start to change. The content available now is tiny compared to what is coming. Apple has figured out the recipe for its platforms and understands that people not only want content (iTunes), but that they highly desire it. Music was the first content store, there will be many more...
4. Applications. Lots of firms are recompiling and refactoring their iPhone apps to work on the iPad. There will be lots of iPad specific apps coming too.
5. User Experience. The last and most important factor is user experience. When people are delighted by a device, that is a great user experience. More than anything else, Apple has figured this out. Like its famous Apple Mac computers and the revolutionary iPhone, the reason Apple is succeeding is because of the superior user experience they deliver. The iPad will be no exception.

So put aside all the hype you will hear. The iPad has just changed the personal computing market and it is a few apps short of being a laptop killer (Walt Mossberg agrees). These are the reasons that the iPad is a winner and probably the reason that you might have one sooner than you think.

The Apple iPad: The Game was over before it began.

2010-03-18T20:28:00.000-07:00

In previous posts, I predicted that the iPad would be a huge hit. Many were skeptical in the press. Order taking just started last week (the unit hasn't shipped yet) and sources told the Wall Street Journal that hundreds of thousands of iPads have been ordered.

Where are all the orders for the look alike devices? The truth is Consumers are much smarter in 2010 than they were in May 1990, when Windows 3.x was announced. The iPad isn't even shipping yet and it has already won.

Of course, it isn't the iPad itself that is the difference. It really is the Operating System, the User interface and the applications and content that you can put on it that are the difference makers. Put simply, the iPad and it's brethren the iPhone/iTouch offer a superior user experience. They delight their users.

So the game is over before it has even begun. It will be interesting to watch which vendor makes a counter move, but they have mountains to climb and few have done their homework like Apple has on this product. Clearly, Steve Jobs and team have every right to be giddy with excitement.

The Truth is Chasing Toyota and Lexus

2010-02-07T10:12:00.000-08:00

In an era where people communicate more quickly than ever before, news travels quickly. That is what happened when a 911 tape was released about an accident in California. News of this accident caused a recall by Toyota. Initially, in the fall of 2009, the public was told that it was floor mats causing a stuck accelerator.

The truth is now chasing Toyota, the world's largest automotive manufacturer. The problem with Toyota and Lexus gas pedals appears to be more than a stuck pedal. Sudden acceleration is the term mechanics are whispering about.

There is an issue on with how Toyota is dealing with the problem. They are not coming clean about their Lexus brand, cars and SUVs that are manufactured by Toyota. It was a runaway 2009 Lexus ES 350 that killed off-duty California Highway Patrol Officer Mark Saylor and his family. It was not Saylor's Lexus, but a loaner from Bob Baker Lexus in El Cajon California, the Toyota Lexus Dealer that Saylor had taken his Lexus in for service.

The Los Angeles Times lists the Toyota and Lexus Models involved in the US Recall. What is so strange is that the expanded recall announced by Toyota recently denies any problem with Lexus in its recent press release. Note, this is probably because they quietly issued a recall in 2009.

Here are the vehicles listed as part of the recall by NHTSA (Pontiac is also listed):

Toyota, Lexus and Pontiac vehicles affected by the entrapment recall are:
- 2007-2010 Camry
- 2005-2010 Avalon
- 2004-2009 Prius
- 2005-2010 Tacoma
- 2007-2010 Tundra
- 2007-2010 Lexus ES 350
- 2006-2010 Lexus IS 250 and IS350
- 2008-2010 Highlander
- 2009-2010 Corolla
- 2009-2010 Venza
- 2009-2010 Matrix
- 2009-2010 Pontiac Vibe

Here is what Toyota lists in their press release:

Certain 2009-2010 RAV4

• Certain 2009-2010 Corolla
• 2009-2010 Matrix
• 2005-2010 Avalon
• Certain 2007-2010 Camry
• Certain 2010 Highlander
• 2007-2010 Tundra
• 2008-2010 Sequoia

Read details of the NTHSA Report that was compiled by ace reporters Ken Bensinger and Ralph Vartabedian of the Los Angeles Times. Their article highlights some of the incredible facts that the NHTSA found about the 2009 Lexus ES 350. Here is how Consumer Guide Automotive describes the 2009 Lexus ES 350: "The 2009 Lexus ES 350 is largely unchanged. ES is essentially a luxury version of the Toyota Camry; Lexus is Toyota's premium division."

Toyota is racing to correct the problem but the question is, what is the problem? Somewhere in Japan, I think there are some engineers that know exactly what the problem is. The truth is out there and it is chasing Toyota and its premium Lexus brand.

The real question is this. Would you let yourself or a family member (especially your kids) drive one of these cars?

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Note, this Blog post offers opinions only.

New Apple Device: Will it Lure Bill Gates out of Retirement?

2010-01-26T21:16:00.000-08:00

A few days ago, I blogged about the second generation ebook reader. I was referring to the new device that is being announced by Apple tomorrow.

The Wall Street Journal quoted Apple Execs, who are giddy with glee about their new device. Giddy? Content providers are also reacting the same way. Besides Apple, the winners are users out there and all the book, newspaper and magazine publishers, who were struggling with a digital business model.

It's the OS
The key thing is that Apple began this journey years ago with some critical developments. First, it was all about taking an Operating System (OS) and making it mobile friendly (iPod, iPhone). Lots of naysayers have ignored this key move. It is the OS here that is strategic. Hardware can be copied. Software and great UI design is much much harder to mimic.

Second it was building two content related ecosystems, iTunes and then the AppStore. No other AppStore has come even close to Apple's success and iTunes remains the gold standard for music distribution.

So now Apple is about to launch a new device with great content and you have a recipe that will crush all comers. Who wins? You do. Students, Soccer Moms and even business people be carrying one soon.

Apple is on a roll right now. Google is a few laps behind (on Mobile) and we keep waiting for a response from Microsoft. It makes one wonder when Microsoft Founder Bill Gates will need to come out of retirement.

The Second Generation eBook Reader

2010-01-21T21:54:00.000-08:00

The second generation eBook Reader is about to launch and it will obliterate all other entrants.. Yes, it is the new Apple Tablet and it has been in the works for years. Details of the Tablet have been leaking for days. Will everyone want one? Of course. Get in line early.

Besides a great design, why will this eBook reader rock? The answer is simple. It is all about content and Apple has the inside edge with iTunes, the App Store and soon the new iNewstand (note, sample name). Why is the New York Times suddenly going to charge for its online edition? Its really simple. They want to catch the wave.

What will be the biggest market for the Apple Tablet? Kids. Text books meet games. The perfect storm.

Should you put your content in the new Apple iNewstand? Right away...So what happens to all those other eBook Readers? eBay....

The New Era of Government Sponsored Cyber Warfare

2010-01-17T13:28:00.000-08:00

The world has changed forever. Cyber warfare has reach new heights with initial reports confirming that the attack on Google, Yahoo, Adobe, Juniper and at least 31 other companies were sponsored by the Chinese Government (see report: Verisign iDefense IDs Chinese Government ).

The sophistication of the attacks has stunned everyone including Carlos Carrillo, the consultant who helped do the investigation for Google and security firm MacAfee. With details emerging, it is no wonder that Google is considering pulling out of China. Government sponsored attacks on Companies at this level are unheard of and given the number of companies targeted, executives must realize that the very survival of their enterprise hinges on making some fundamental changes in their approach to corporate security.

These attacks weren't just probes, the hackers were trying to get access to source code, which is what products and software services are based on. One who has access to source code can copy it, change it and make a new product or service. News of this should make any rational business person shake their head in disgust. It means that it is now all out cyber warfare and a different approach to defensive measures must be taken.

So what does one do in the short term? Since every version of Internet Explorer is vulnerable to this kind of attack and since no enterprise can guarantee that users will reset their browser settings to high security, the simplest approach is to remove Internet Explorer from all corporate PCs and all personal PCs that access the corporate network. Mashable reports on that exact recommendation that the German Government just issued.

CIOs can't wait on this. This screams for immediate action. No one wants their career to be marked by the story of how the crown jewels (aka source code) of the company they worked at were stolen because a bad browser wasn't replaced. That is just the first step. Realizing that governments are using multi-stage cyber attacks means that new guidelines and procedures must be employed.

Setting the Record Straight on Apple Macs vs PCs. User Experience Trumps all

2009-12-23T20:12:00.000-08:00

While at Gartner, in December 2006, I started talking about the shift I made on the home front from Dell PCs to Macs. There was a simple reason I made the shift. My Dell PCs were great, but I was spending too much time maintaining them. Too much tinkering. Another reason was that I wanted an easier way to manage photos and videos of our kids without going to the extreme of Photoshop.

The home shift to Macs was easy and we never looked back. Of course, I have many friends that just love to tinker with PCs and Windows. They won't admit it, but it is a borderline hobby. For many IT people, they have made it a career of keeping PCs tweaked and running.

Jump ahead to 2010 and why are so many Apple Macs showing up in Corporate settings, often paid for by the employee? There must be a reason for it and there is. It is called user experience. In fact, the user experience on a Mac is so good and relatively trouble free, that when faced with the need to support Apple Macs, most IT Departments only offer a user supported Wiki (community support). What, no dedicated IT people to tinker with the MacOS? Nope. The latest generations of Macs just work. No tinkering required.

For the most part, Windows requires lots of tinkering (note, this is an opinion). Windows 7 may fix that, but right now that is still an unknown. It is also important to point out that Microsoft knows all about user experience. Just look at MS Office and Outlook, both gold standards on user experience. Ask any Mac user what they run on their machine for creating documents and presentations and 9 out of 10 will quickly answer "Microsoft Office".

Going forward, users will decide how they want to consume information and what types of devices they want to use to do so. This will go far beyond the current Mac vs PC discussion. Tablets appear poised to make a comeback and a majority of end-users around the world have a mobile device, not a PC. There too, it is about a positive user experience.

If you have any doubt about the importance of User experience, let's talk about the device that has taken the world by storm: the Apple iPhone.

The Unstoppable Force Called Users

2009-12-21T19:47:00.000-08:00

A blog post from earlier this year, republished here for all to see:

The Unstoppable Force called Users

There is an unstoppable force at work (in enterprises) called users. Users are deciding how they want to use technology to solve problems and they are taking action. In a previous blog post, I discussed three CIOs who are beginning to adapt to this. Today, I will briefly discuss users.

Yesterday was a major day for Apple users all over the world: an updated OS Release called Snow Leopard. While there is news about this release (see Gartner First Take), what is more interesting is how users are dealing with these and other related technology issues.

In many companies around the world, bands of users are supporting each other regarding how they use their Macs at work. Besides the fact that many of these users feel so strongly that they purchased their own Mac, the real story is how they support each other through discussion forums, wikis and even short emails.

In the last 24 hours, the story that has surfaced with a few of my co-workers is how easy it was to connect their Snow Leopard enabled Macs to our Email Server (Microsoft Exchange) with no help from anyone within IT.

There are also even more examples of users who jumped the gun and migrated to Vista themselves and those users support each other. Now it is happening with Windows 7 as well. See a related blog post from Gartner Fellow David Mitchell Smith.

This is signaling a trend with users. Technology like computers, OSs and applications are becoming less complicated and users are no longer afraid (to take risks). Savvy CIOs are getting in front of this trend (the empowered user) and are adapting their workplace policies (giving up some control, but also, by being more flexible, gaining some back).

Macs may not overtake Windows in enterprises anytime soon, but the iPhone 3G and 3Gs have exploded into the enterprise, because of demand by users. As I stated to some of my former co-workers who use Macs,may the force be with you.

Instant Classic: What I said about eBooks in 2000

2009-12-21T19:37:00.000-08:00

Ho, Ho Ho, my old firm deleted my great blog post on eBooks (because I'm no longer there). Thanks to Google, I got it before it disappeared into the ether. Here it is.

What I said about Books in 2000

eBooks are no longer a dream of the future. I peered into the past and dug out some of the research we wrote about eBooks and digital paper back in the year 2000.

In Digital Paper: Is It Paper, a Display or Both?, Gartner Fellow Jackie Fenn and I wrote about the new medium that readers like the Kindle use. Here is what we said: “D-paper bridges the gap between traditional paper and display technologies. It has the potential to change the publishing industry, eliminating the huge barriers to entry in newspaper, magazine and book publishing. For the short term, signage will be the primary application. Web and hard copy content providers need to develop architectures that allow for content distribution via D-paper technology.”

The predictions from that Research note were:
By year-end 2004, electronic books will be the primary application for active D-paper (0.8 probability).
By year-end 2003, D-paper will be commercially available for a variety of output uses (0.8 probability).

The two vendors we mentioned in the Research note were Xerox (Gyricon Media Inc., which was spun out of Xerox PARC) and E INK, which is now the defacto leader in this display technology.

In E-Book Proliferation: Critical Factors, Rita Knox, Alan Weintraub (former Gartner Analyst) and I wrote about: “Publishers’ worst fears about e-books are that the books will be downloaded to an array of electronic devices, reducing sales of traditional books. These fears may not materialize. The revenue generated from e-books may not only offset a possible decline in paper sales, but may cause an increase in sales by expanding the potential audience for books delivered in any medium.”

The things we said about Devices, Software and Content:

“Devices: E-book devices include not just e-book readers (e.g., NuvoMedia’s Rocket eBook and the SoftBook Reader) but any output device that can present e-book content — personal digital assistants, digital audio, interactive TV, audio and Braille devices (e.g., the Blazie 2000 Braille display) — to multiple senses (visual, auditory, tactile and multimedia).

E-book devices must supersede the familiarity and simplicity of paper books. Content vendors must rethink what electronic content delivery can do for readers. The answers to this challenge will determine the relative value of different delivery devices. The advantage of electronic content is that it makes delivery of content much more flexible, since it can be formatted for different output devices. This flexibility will allow consumers to read (or listen to) a book conveniently in different situations (e.g., at home, in the office, traveling or driving) and in different environments, so that e-books can better match individual lifestyles, preferences and limitations.

Software: Software is the major aspect of e-books that Microsoft has targeted (see Note 2). E-book software serves content to the various output devices. The most successful software will offer the greatest flexibility, allowing a reader not only to access the content from different devices, but also to access the same content at different times and places as the opportunities arise (e.g., from a handheld device at home, to a car’s audio system and then on an office PC).

Software vendors must overcome an array of challenges centered around the management of digital rights. The ease with which electronic content can be copied and transformed threatens publishers and authors. E-book software must support various pricing models, give access only to authorized users and prevent theft of the content (i.e., unauthorized copying). These protections should not unduly limit the flexibility and convenience that will make e-book delivery more attractive than paper.

Content: Before e-books become widely available, publishers and authors must be comfortable making their works available in digital format. Unfortunately, this issue lies farthest from a satisfactory resolution. Publishers remain nervous because appropriate rules (e.g., for reuse) have not been formulated, so the required theft-proof technologies are not defined, much less implemented. The content providers (e.g., publishers) must define the rules for pricing and reuse.”

In general we got it right and we predicted the future. However, it took longer for eBook Readers to become popular, partially because of the lack of digital content available them. The one thing we didn’t predict was that Amazon and Google would be players in this space….The good news now is that newspapers and magazines are finally realizing that paper is just one way of displaying content. For some content publishers it is too late, for others, it is just the beginning.

My Third Wave

2009-12-10T07:55:00.000-08:00

Last night I took my Gartner ID Badge and put it in my drawer, right next to the Xerox badge I wore for 15 years. December 8th marked 11.5 years to the day of my time at Gartner and it was a great run. I leave behind many great times and some incredible people and incredible clients. As with everything though, times change.

I've worked with many CEOs in my time at Gartner. One of them that I've worked with the longest is Bobby Yazdani, Chairman and CEO of Saba Software. Today I start at Saba, where I'll be taking Collaboration to the next level as VP/GM of Collaboration.

Saba is primarily known in the Human Capital and e-Learning markets, but they have some formidable Collaboration capabilities. Rest assured, you'll be hearing more about that shortly.

People Can Tell if You are Real or Fake

2009-12-06T09:34:00.000-08:00

A post by a friend on Facebook got me thinking about real and digital personas and what it all means. The FB post started out like this:

   FB Post: If you're a jerk in real life, your a jerk on Facebook....uh Karen.....(not the person's real name)

   Later, Karen responded with something like: "I guess i'll never introduce you to your future husband...."

   My friend responded with a short comment: "I rest my case."

So what does this mean? Increasingly, people are seeking out others they work with to find out if they are real (are you really a friend) or if they are fake (you're my friend as long as it helps me get ahead). The funny thing is that this sort of analysis has always gone on, but now it is easier and faster to perform a sentiment analysis on someone. It is becoming harder for people to hide who they really are.

We all got a peek into the private life of Tiger Woods over the last week. His sentiment analysis dropped 20 points in a week. That said, how can you tell if someone you work with is really your friend or not? How can you tell if you can trust them? The historical answer has always been "only after they burn you".

A client asked me earlier in the year if I was really going to be their friend. The question really was: 'can I trust you'. I responded with an affirmative and months later I proved to be trustworthy after something happened. There is a lesson here for everyone.

Online behavior can sometimes make it easier to tell who is really a friend and who is not (or who you can trust). People can immediately rank or comment on what you do. However, that doesn't prevent someone from faking it. That said, people can still tell (and they do talk), but now sentiment analysis will be a growing part of who the real you really is. Sentiment Analysis is part of the growing area called Social Media Monitoring which in turn is part of what is called Social Network Analysis.

The fact that so many managers will be undone (via Social Network Analysis tools) is the reason why they are afraid of the implications of Social Networking. A Social Network Analysis of their online actions at work will show that many of them spend most of their time managing upward, not actually managing people (because of limited interactions with the common worker).

People that want to get ahead in the workplace often think that the only way to do that is to burn (e.g. deceive) others. It doesn't have to be that way, but today that is often the case. So, the next time you friend someone from work on Facebook, take a second to think about whether they are really your friend.

I was CEO at a Non-Profit

2009-12-04T10:12:00.000-08:00

During my last 1.5 years at Xerox and for my first 4.5 years at Gartner, I was the CEO of a non-profit. It wasn't something I sought out, it sought me. My college fraternity was in trouble, so I took over has head of the alumni corporation (e.g. often referred to as a House Corporation).

It was daunting at first, because many alumni presidents are glorified fraternity house landlords. Gradually, I rebuilt the House Corporation Board of Directors. My CFO, Scott Cassara, was incredible, particularly because when we took over, we were broke. Scott is currently SVP and CFO at DynCorp International. My other board member who stuck with me through all the tough times was Jeff Painter, who was also my college roommate. There were also other critical board members who contributed like Wil Woodrum, Joe Conaty, Dave Heatwole and others.

Running a non-profit corporation is really no different than running a for-profit firm. There are multiple things to worry about and it all has to be coordinated and seamless. If you do a good job, people give back (buy). If you don't, they run away. We did a great job and alumni started contributing and giving back. They also come back, as we have the longest running alumni weekend of any alumni group at Penn State (the PSU-Sigma Chi Golf Classic, now in its 20th year).

In fact, after my stint as CEO, Jeff Painter and I helped launch a major capital campaign and remodeled the awesome physical plant we have at Penn State. One of the best things we did as a board though was to hire and install a live-in House Mother who is still there. The Penn State Greek System would be better if all fraternity houses had House Mothers (like they do in the Mid-West and the South).

I'm proud of my time as CEO of Alpha Chi House Corporation. I put a lot into it and as I head back into Industry, I'll tap those experiences.

A Friend of Sales

2009-12-03T08:33:00.000-08:00

In my farewell note that I sent to Gartner colleagues yesterday, I copied a whole bunch of sales execs in addition to all my friends in research. I said that I'd miss my friends in Sales because Sales is part of my DNA (in addition to marketing, I was a District Manager of Sales at Xerox).

After moving from Upstate NY to California in the second half of 2008, I got to know the whole Gartner Sales Office in San Jose, because I took the time to do so. The Managing VP, Pat Hoey and his Region Manager Dennis O'Malley and I became friends. When I was in the San Jose office (and I was there a lot), I would walk around and greet people. We'd talk about client facing issues. I helped a few client teams with their strategy, mainly because they asked for help. We also grew the business because we helped clients (large and small) solve some of their problems.

In so many firms today, Sales is viewed as a necessary evil. Marketing is not well connected with Sales and many marketing people don't understand the sales process. It sounds strange, but it is true in so many cases. Many functional managers don't view it as their role to help sales. That is wrong. In the old days at firms like Xerox and IBM, everyone in the company participated in a blitz day.

When you look at many firms today, leadership starts at the top. Companies that are growing are doing so because they are focused on customers. They listen to their customers and take actions based on the feedback. Think about that the next time someone from sales asks for your help.

My Time at Gartner

2009-12-02T13:53:00.000-08:00

My time at Gartner is coming to an end. I submitted my resignation last week and will be leaving to go back into Industry. Moving back to the Bay Area last year and doing all the work that I did with clients this year, made me yearn to get back into the saddle (for those that don't know, I was an Executive at Xerox for 15 years prior to joining Gartner).

It has been a tremendous honor to work with all of my clients over the last 11.5 years. It is never easy to say farewell, and I leave with fond memories of all the great things that have been accomplished. I was honored to serve as a Trusted Advisor to both end-users and technology providers.

I will also note that I was a Gartner client before I came to Gartner and I will be a Gartner client in my new role.

I'll be back here next week to talk about what I'll be doing....

AMR is not the only News

2009-12-01T16:20:00.000-08:00

Gartner is buying AMR and that is big news, but it is not the only news. Tune in tomorrow for some more big news.....about yours truly.

Shifting Blogs

2009-11-30T14:33:00.000-08:00

This is my new site for my personal blog, which is simply JimLundy. You'll be hearing more here in the next few days. I'll also be posting some of my old blog posts because I want to refer to them in future musings.

For now, I hope everyone enjoyed Turkey week and are continuing to get ready for a fast December.

You can also follow me on Twitter.